Argh.
I feel so stupid.
Knew this would happen but I let it play out the way it did anyway.
Bet too heavy of ultra-leveraged USDJPY.
Kept feeling like the BOJ would intervene at some point.
Also kept pushing my stop too close so it was really easy to get stop-hunted.
And it happened.
Ended up losing $6K.
Ouch so painful :(
Feeling a little worried lately about global developments recently.
Ukraine seems to be losing the war against Russia the aggressor. In the war of attrition, it is already quite a miracle that they’ve held strong on for three years now, but they are beginning to lose ground quickly as more supporting countries turn more right winged.
Israel’s invasion of Gaza over Hamas’ Oct 7th atrocities has turn global moral opinion against them and now seems to be escalating wider with Iran and the US possibly drawn in.
Myanmar civil war where the resistance appears to be gaining ground is a positive thing considering the repressive junta. The junta’s recent law to draft conscripts is so worrying.
Philippines’ South China sea confrontations with China over their nine-dotted line claims appears to be escalating.
Trump looking more and more likely to win the coming US elections and then he’s going to cause a lot of havoc in global affairs such as stopping support for NATO, escalating trade wars with China and totally neglecting SEA. So worrying.
These current affairs make me think about how and what I need to do to position myself financially, mentally, emotionally and maybe even physically!
Boooooooo…
The best high yield savings account (HYSA) has been nerfed, but still quite good among the rest.
Probably in anticipation of interest rate cuts in the US, UOB has gone ahead to nerf their power HYSA, what a pity.
From earning 5% pa with a monthly average balance of $100K, now it has been reduced to earning 4% pa with a monthly average balance of $150K.
Sadly we can’t complain too much as there are not many better alternatives out there.
So I’ll still to it and pump some more savings that way.
The next best is still OCBC360 but it might be a matter of time before that one is nerfed too.
I know some have mentioned Maribank, but right now I use Trust as the third option. Maybe I’ll open an account with Maribank and try too.
This REIT I have followed closely since the popular finance blogger ASSI took a big position in it.
Unfortunately the price keeps dropping because of the uncertainty in global interest rates and uncertainty in Europe (its properties are entirely in Europe).
Yet, when it is dividends time, this REIT continues to pay really well, yet without overtaxing itself. It is prudent and management makes very good decisions aimed to benefit shareholders.
What a bumper dividend this time round! I will use the proceeds to either reinvest or to buy something else undervalued in Europe (I like that its dividends I’ve chosen to pay out in EUR), as I’ve done with the last few years of its dividends.
But the market keeps devaluing it.
I do question myself what’s wrong but I can find as much issues as another big holding of mine, PSNY.
So I do feel quite convicted to not only keep holding but to find some opportunities to average down.
Hopefully they are as undervalued as I see them.
HUAT AH!!!
In any case wanted to mention my taste of retirement.
This week is the school holidays so I took a whole week off.
We travelled to Ipoh which I’ll blog about later but came back on a Wednesday.
Then yesterday I took to exercising the whole morning to burn off that 2-3kg of awesome Ipoh food. By noon the kids had come home and I just nuahed around and napped from 3-5pm.
By evening we had a dinner and then I binged on Netflix this new Korean drama called Dr Slump.
Could this be my early taste of retirement?
PSNY continues to bleed and taking a toll on my overall portfolio.
Market feels toppish so I’ve actually reverted to a little more cash. Took profits where I could.
I have this bad habit of letting my losers run for years and that’s what I’m still doing.
Crypto is on a tear and basically more than 2x for me already. Think I’ll need to take some profits before April’s halving.
Cash is king now and UOBOne and OCBC360 combo is super awesome. Up and coming is Trust which could be my third liquid cash pillar once I max the earlier two out.
No berserker rages yet this year! This is a really big achievement for me and hope to keep that going. All my little punts are smaller and more rational, resulting in a higher win rate even if at small amounts.
Also shorted XAUUSD to earn really good and sticky carry.
Huat ah!
One of my worst investments ever!
In a good year for me financially, this has continued to turn in a fail report card as it just keeps sliding down to oblivion.
Mind you, this was once my largest single investment for a good while. Today it is but a mid table investment that I might have to write off.
Pui!
Feb early signs point to spending more money.
PSNY’s drop is unrelenting. Not sure what to make of it.
Everything else is going good.
The NASDAQ is just powering up and up and up.
All else being equal, basically not taking more risks than necessary this month and let everything cruise.
Crypto is powering up and up and up too! It’s definitely printing :)
2024’s tilt is towards a bullish stance.
Bar some type of major war on a global scale (I know there are worrying pockets all over the world right now), it looks like the global economy can chug along nicely.
Interest rates in the US are sufficiently high, with no increases in the horizon, means we are either going to see expected rate cuts or a surprise of zero cuts. In between the expected three cuts vs zero cuts, my personal stance is one cut this year and maximum two cuts.
Main reason for this is that inflation is going to be sticky. And we’re seeing exactly why the stock markets are heading up. Inflation also causes the stock market to go up.
So here’s my own hypothesis below and I am ONLY TALKING TO MYSELF SO THIS IS NOT ADVICE IN ANY SORT OF WAY.
This is bad of course because at some point, people will not be able to afford (people are cutting back heavily on spending since start of the year, layoffs in tech and finance is crazy high) >> consumer purchases will come down drastically >> companies cannot keep up with their overly inflated sales numbers >> flushed institutional liquidity has to invest to keep up with inflation and expectations >> PE will skyrocket >> bubble territory and ATHs.
We are in ATH territory already but is this a bubble yet? My opinion is that we are not even close yet. PE multiples are still not at euphoric zones and you have stocks like the magnificent seven (GOOG, META, AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, AMZN) that’s powering into this year with overwhelming strength.
I also think it is a good time to load up on the magnificent seven but to be very nimble and be ready to sell when we are possibly at the top of the bubble. Of course we will never be able to time where this bubble is so chances are is I will end up buying at the high or selling too early. I am already DCA-ing regularly into a few of the seven, that’s at least my own strategy.
Meanwhile, resist the attempt to short the US markets all through Q1-Q3. Review again in Q4 and see where we are then.
Meanwhile, keep other portfolios separate!
Dividend portfolio should be kept separate. High interest rate environment has not been kind to it last year but this year it is already recovering and providing some token passive income so I’m glad that I stayed the course. Looking to grow it further as interest rates come down.
Cash portfolio is also growing stronger and this will serve as potential war chest or emergency funds if other portfolios do not perform well. Just save a bit here and there where possible and resist always replying everything into the markets.
Crypto portfolio is STRONG. Just stay for the ride, no expectations but this should 2x or 3x if everyone says BTC and ETH and where it’s supposed to go. Going into the new year up 30% is already a big yay.
Gambling portfolio stopped altogether in 2024 to save money. Lots of money to be saved here if I resist gambling at all and so far so good this year! Just resist losing money to stupid bets.
Hope to huat big big this year!!!
Stopping all day trading for the coming three days.
January has been a crazy huat month for me and what a start for the new year it has been on this front! Hopefully we continue in the same vein all year!
Just follow the uptrend and ride the ATH wave!
This year I’ve turned bullish and as much as the geopolitical situation appears worrisome, there is the belief that the US is printing SO MUCH USD that the stock markets can only go one way and that is up.
For January the main profits came from Options, Stocks and the US Indices. Shiok max.
It also means inflation may be coming in strong. So staying invested in the market while keeping an adequate war chest will be key in case the market drops.
Be safe out there.
HUAT AH!!!